The great number of betting on the NRL Finals

The odds of Bookies are a reasonable indicator of how each team is supposed to do

Before each game, betting companies first run some of their own forecast models to determine the starting price and this is changed up or down based on the sum put or on each result.

When I last checked out, South Sydney was the favorite AU$1.38 and Canterbury was AU$3.15. In other words, betting firms assume that there is a 70 per cent risk of becoming Rabbit’s prime minister and a 30 percent chance of taking home the crown.

Apart from the apparent fact that indeed, of course both teams will prevail, the basic fact that tradition shows us that the finals are usually more predictable than daily matches.

Neither team finished in the top four and went on to claim the Grand Finals after 1995. With South Sydney’s third finish and The Bulls’ seventh finish, recent history is certainly on the side of the Rabbito.

Much has already been done regarding the decision of the NRL judiciary to suspend South Sydney hooker Issac Luke for tossing a dangerous opponent last week. Several analysts addressed his significance to his side and how their chances of winning are diminished when he is missing.

Latest evidence just does not help this interpretation. From 2007 to 2011, the team won just once out of the nine games it missed (11 percent win rate) due to 48 victories in the 101 games it played (47 percent win rate). 

Since 2012, his presence or absence doesn’t seem so important-seven of the 11 games he skipped were won this season (64 percent win rate). As many of the sports wisdoms sometimes cited, this argument seems to have lasted longer than the evidence should confirm the claim to be valid.

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